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The rAPC and the CUPP configuration....Matters arising.

With the split in APC, the defections, alliances and mergers, no doubt the political equation is being altered in the Nigerian political space as we approach 2019. Whichever side you belong, these changes will have some effects either positive or negative.
Lets look at the the events that played out in 2014.
When the aggrived members of PDP left and joined in the formation of APC,PDP never recovered and that resulted in their losing the election.
Major factors: 
Those that left had a significant influence in their respective states. Besides, they were heavyweights who command high level of followers and they all followed them to their new party.
Governors Rabiu Kwankwaso of Kano
Aliyu Wamakko of Sokoto
Abdulfatah Ahmed of Kwara
Murtala Nyako of Adamawa
Rotimi Amaechi of Rivers States.
The above governors joined the APC after staging a walk out on the PDP national convention in Abuja in 2014 and that was how GEJ government was defeated.
Recent events in 2018.
There has been agitations from some members of the nPDP who accuse the APC leadership of marginalization especially in juicy appointments. They claimed that their group (nPDP) is not being accorded proper recognition. After series of failed negotiations, the pulled out and addressed themselves as rAPC. APC kicked and even went to court.
Any Serious Implication(s)?
First and foremost, no political party will be willing to let their members go no matter their strength because politics is a game of numbers. However, those in r-APC have little or no clout with the exception of few who are yet to make their intentions known.
Below are nPDP members who are either leaving or still with the APC and no doubt may still be very relevant in their respective states. On the other hand, it might also be tough for them because there are other big wigs to checkmate them in their respective areas of influence. Any miscalculation may retire them politically. So they are being very careful and weighing best options.
How the major players stand at the moment:
1) We have Saraki in Kwara who has good influence over the years as built and established by his father, but may have diminished as a result of recent events. The offa robbery and others easily come to mind.
2) Tambuwal is very likely to leave, but remember his Godfather Wamako who installed him. May affect APC, but not significantly. Wamako is still a very strong force in Sokoto.
3) Amaechi is still relevant in APC and may deliver more votes as against 2015.
4. Dogora is in Bauchi fighting for the battle of his life. The Governor is seriously chassing him out of the state and he is not sure of coming back to the house as an APC candidate in 2019. Remember Senator Isiah Misau? He is also from Bauchi. That one cannot even go to his constituency. The last time he visited, he was stoned and chased out for insulting PMB.
5. Dino Melaye is not coming back as an APC senator and even PDP has vowed not to take him as a candidate. Kogi is a settled case as far as any prominent opposition figure is concerned. Remember that Smart Adeyemi recently joined APC and had since been adopted as a candidate in Kabba- Bunu/ Ijumu Federal Constituency of Kogi State.
6. Kano is another settled case not only that Kwankwaso is no more Governor. He has been chased out of Kano and Governor Abdullahi Umar Ganduje is a core and unrepentant Buharist just like me. I even heard that his red cap symbol were being set ablaze daily by his supporters for attacking PMB.
Matters arising.
APC will definitely not do well in the North central. But that is if nothing is done in the coming months about the killings. The PDP is seriously using it as a campaign strategy. Nigerians forget so easily, otherwise, they should know that the same events happened under PDP and they did absolutely nothing. So APC can rise up to the challenge if they feel up to it. It's not too late to find a lasting solution by approaching stakeholders in the area.
The rAPC group for me is not a factor and APC knows that. Buhari is a Political party on it's own. Standing alone, he can win his traditional states. But APC still need to work hard. The recent membership drive of the PDP to become CUPP will not change the status quo. They will certainly lose members after the emergence of a presidential candidate.

Nnaemeka Ikerionwu
Email: meganaija12@gmail.com

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